Powerup mystery box chance study

13 replies [Last post]
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 19:50
Garth's picture
Garth
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 03/04/2015

After geting nothing but yaknog from the mystery box of powerups I was wondering if it were possible to test the chance of getting a specific powerup. So, being an engineering student and a scientist by heart I decided to test it.

 

Procedure

1. procure 66 mystery boxes using old wrinkly's cauldron 

2. pick a powerup slot and stick with it through the entire test do not switch powerup slots. in this test the first slot on the second row was used

3. open each mystery box and click the chosen slot and write down the result until all mystery boxes have been opened.

4 tally the results into a table for easy analysis

 

Data

 

Number of powerups recieved

Total: 66

Speed Boost: 12

Energy Boost:13

Smart Bomb: 11

Yaknog: 9

Terrible Terrors Booster: 13

Deadly Nadder Spikes Booster: 8

 

Calculate chances of receiving a certain power up

Example calculation

speed boost/total = 12/66 = 0.1818181818... = 0.182 = 18.2%

 

Speed Boost: 18.2%

Energy Boost:19.7%

Smart Bomb: 16.7%

Yaknog: 13.6%

Terrible Terrors Booster: 19.7%

Deadly Nadder Spikes Booster: 12.1%

 

Thus we can conclude that the Nadder Spikes are the rarest power up and Energy Eoost and Smart Bomb are the two most common powerups one can receive in a mystery box.

__________________

Garth of Izar's signature

 

 

Portraits by Pixel

Fanfiction:

The Legend of Garth of Izar: 

Book 1: The Fall of Izar

Lost Tales of Izar

Other interesting posts

Chances of Receiving a Certain Powerup From the Mystery Box of Powerups Study

 

The Book of Dragons (it's a work in progress I'm trying to organize all the tips and tricks on the forums into something that's browsable)

 

The Bejeweled Chest Fiasco, Me and harbinger (my deathsong) investigate the mystery of the random chests and we find a big one!

 

Banners:

I enjoy: HTTYD, Halo, Destiny, Aldnoah Zero, Sword Art Online, RWBY. Assassin's Creed, Avatar the Last Airbender, Quantum Mechanics, Relativity, Engineering, Physics, Biology, Chemistry, building airplanes and rockets, and making the impossible possible. 

SOD Fan Fiction Club

Quotes:

If you zap a dead fish right you can restart it's heart and then it becomes a problem, especially if it's supposed to be your dinner. 

 

"It was going well until it exploded"

 

"It's just a mild calibration error" 

 

"I'm not crazy I'm completely insane and i enjoy every minute of it!"

 

Dragons:

Monstrous Nightmare: Sunbreaker (M) (Broadwing)

 

The first dragon I come across on berk, goes around doing his own thing most of the time. Likes taking care of baby dragons so he stays in the stables alot. Though he will come out to play fireball frenzy. He loves showing off and as he always shoots fire at the sun at least once a day hoping to finally catch that light. 

 

Deadly Nadder: Whirlwind (F) (Broadwing)

Fast and agile Whirlwind is one of my racing dragons. She is often the one trusted to lead the herd when Sunbreaker is away. She loves mirrors and shiny objects. She also preens alot. 

 

Thunderdrum: SONAR (M) (Broadwing)

A blind thunderdrum, uses sound to navigate. Really loud and loves singing (not everyone else enjoys it though).

 

Scauldron: Wavedancer (F) (Broadwing)

Boiling water and a knack for mischief, this scauldron often plays pranks on fishing boatsby stealing their catch and doubling it. 

 

Tide Glider: Riptide (F) (Broadwing)

My main riding dragon, she is shy around new people but will never back down from a fight. She is the first dragon I tamed while on Izar, and my main dragon for fun stuff in the game.

 

Skrill: Teslan (F) (Broadwing)

Often charges my electrical lab equipment and is my main racing dragon.

 

Raincutter: Drizzle (F) (Broadwing)

Likes rain, helps me out at the forge and in the lab 

 

Stormcutter: Chinook (M) (Broadwing)

This stormcutter was found riding the chinooks as a baby he likes warm winds and long flights in the mountains.

 

Zippleback: Ayre & Dance (M) (Broadwing)

One head sleeps while the other one searches for food. Two headed efficiency at its finest.

 

Sand Wraith: Luna (F) (Broadwing)

Found on the Onyx beach, this sand wraith looks like the surface of the moon

 

Changewing: Glass (F) (Broadwing)

Loves hide and seek, and likes turning invisible and scaring vikings into thinking there is a ghost. 

 

Woolly Howl: Athabasca (F) (Broadwing)

Named after the Princess, Glacier, River and Lake bearing the same name she like cold weather and enjoys dragon nip tea

 

Shivertooth: Blizzard (M) (Broadwing)

Found on Icestorm Island harrasing groncicles, has a grudge with Yellowknife

 

Flightmare: Aurora (F) (Broadwing)

Likes flying around Icestorm Island

 

Speed Stinger:Scramjet (F) (Broadwing)

Always moves with her mouth open reminded me of a scramjet

 

Typhoomerang: Scorch (F) (Broadwing)

Likes scorching eels, hates eating them

 

Hobblegrunt: Tlaloc (M) (Broadwing)

Named after the Aztec god of rain Tlaloc likes splashing in puddles

 

Sweet Death: Ambrosia (M) (Shortwing)

sits around all day bothering the bees

 

Shockjaw: Ion (F) (Broadwing)

Ion likes swimming in saltwater and plasma

 

Fireworm Queen: Fusion (F) (Shortwing)

Very protective even as a baby

 

Fireworm Queen2: Pulsar (F) (Shortwing)

Very adventurous even as a baby is blue for some reason

 

Smothering Smokebreath: Charla (F) (Shortwing)

Loves eating charcoal

 

Groncicle: Yellowknife (M) (Broadwing)

named after the capital of the Northwest Territories and found on Icestorm Island

 

Rumblehorn: Shieldbreaker (M) (Broadwing)

Guess what his favorite hobby is?

 

Scuttleclaw: Ammolite (F) (Shortwing)

 

Moldruffle: Fel (M) (Baby)

Mudraker: Mudkip (M) (Baby)

Grapple Grounder 1: Yin (M) (Shortwing)

Grapple Grounder 2: Yang (F) (Shortwing)

Snow Wraith: Frostbite (M) (Shortwing)

Prickleboggle: Nightingale (F) (Baby)

Sliquifier: Sedna (F) (Baby)
Razorwhip 1: Tomahawk (M) (Baby)
Razorwhip 2:  Katara (F) (Baby)
Deathsong: Harbinger (F) (Broadwing)
Snaptrapper: Mistletoe (F) (Baby)
After rescuing a freezing egg on Snoggletog's eve this Snaptrapper was born the next day in the middle of winter. 
Thunderpede: Magnitude (M) (Baby)
Timberjack: Maple (F) (Baby)

 

Slithering Fluoroscale by Nightmarerebuff: Silica

Found when flying around Berk eating elderberries off the bushes, hates raspberries.

 

(Former Clan: Order of the White Lotus)

 

Current Clan: The Dragon Racers

 

On the Subject of Hackers

please read this link, it helps to identify the different types of hackers. I have hacked computers, and servers in the past (despite not being the best at code) but I never do it for personal gain. Unfortunately the hackers most people refer to on the internet are crackers so they bring a bad light on the hacking community in general. I only learned to hack code because I needed to in order to hack my microwave and other software in my house.

 

Don't be a Cracker you ruin it for everyone!

Top
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 19:52
#1
Garth's picture
Garth
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 03/04/2015
Please do your own studies and share your results!

Please do your own studies and share your results! The more data the better!

Top
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 20:01
#2
NetaianWastling
Offline
Chief
Joined: 02/26/2015
No stop it Firebird-- NOOO MY SUBJECT!

I can do that, but it'll take me a while to get 66 boxes.

 

(Also, out of curiosity, why 66?)

__________________

   "Remember the past, the dawn, the beginning, when the air was hushed and full of life waiting to begin.  Remember it now as the sun sets, vibrantly red and full of life falling slowly back to oblivion.  We are dust, and to dust we return.  The world has burned out and crumbled into ash.  But from this ash a phoenix will rise.  Dawn will begin again, and you and I will see the beginning return, with its hush of life.  Wait and see, little sister, wait and see."

          --Old Memory, Incidental: 5

 

 

 

This is Seasteel.  I'm not really sure what kind of dragon he is.  He just sort of showed up one day and followed my boat around.  I don't know if I can really call him 'my' dragon, but he does seem to like me more than he likes anyone else.

He's kind of shy, but he's a schemer and knows how to keep secrets.  When I'm docking my boat, he often pretends he doesn't know me and then sneaks up on me from behind (which is kind of annoying, because he invariably knocks me over into the water).

 

Seasteel by rasvim1313

 

 

 

This is Slipper, my one and only Nocturne Death Breather.  I was walking along in the woods one day when she attacked me.  I held my breath and flailed around and ended up hitting her on the head.  When the vapor cleared (it happened to be windy that day, which is why I'm still alive), she was just lying there and I felt really bad for her.  I left her a fish as a 'sorry I smacked you' gift and thought no more about it.

A few weeks later, I took that route just to see what had become of her.  She attacked me again, so I smacked her again, and left a fish again.  We repeated this fairly often.  Not an ideal relationship....

After a few months we got to the point where we would sort of watch each other and edge around each other nervously, but we wouldn't fight.  Then one day I walked through the area and I didn't see her anywhere.  I did hear something that sounded something like a moan and something like a scream, so I went to investigate.

Slipper was sitting there in a pile of shattered eggs, just making this sound over and over.  There was a dead wild boar next to her with bits of shell on its face.  I assume the eggs were her children, but they might have been her younger siblings.  I'll never know.

Slipper's glow was flickering wildly and it looked like she was in shock.  I couldn't just leave her there, so I put a hand behind her head and guided her to my house.  She just sort of went along with me, staring glassily ahead.

I slowly nursed her back to mental health, and by that time she was so used to me that she stayed with me.

Slipper is sweet and hyperprotective.  She gets anxious when we're separated (she may not be fully recovered mentally).  I think she's decided that I'm one of her lost eggs; she mothers me like there's no tomorrow (she washes behind my ears every morning and even jams food into my mouth if she thinks I'm not eating enough).  I don't know if she's extremely loyal, since I found her after Hiccup fought the Bewilderbeast and so no loyalty issues have come up, but since she thinks I'm one of her eggs I assume she'll go 'mother-dragon' if she thinks I'm being threatened.

She also tries to mother my other dragons, but they're not having any of it.  :)

Slipper by Flyleaf Homes

 

 

* * * * *

 

FANGIRL ZONE!

 

I just discovered the Lord of the Rings movies.

 

Specifically, I discovered Aragorn:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And Frodo:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BOROMIR FEELS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, Legolas is actually a squirrel:

 

 

 

 

 

That is all (for now; there shall be many, many more gifs later).

Top
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 20:06
#3
Garth's picture
Garth
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 03/04/2015
Why 66?

it's easily divisible by 6, (since there are 6 powerups), originally I was going to do 60 but I decided to do 66 since I had that many on hand after I got 15000 coins and decided to go on a cauldron spree (I still have 7000 left over) I would just to 66 since the more data the better. 

 

Go ahead and do as many as you want, take it to 1000 if you want the more data the better, but you'll need at least 60 for good data.

Top
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 19:55
#4
Hjonard32's picture
Hjonard32
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 12/23/2014
-

God My head will Explode

__________________

I dont like punctuations okay...so if i reply to a thread dont expect punctuations i dont like them xD

also...im not good with grammar...so yea..grammar nazis...stay away xD

Click Here for my ADOPTED DRAGON

I don't like putting pics on my sig so yeah

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

 

sorry i just had to do it xD

.

 

Top
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 20:00
#5
Garth's picture
Garth
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 03/04/2015
reply

For me this is a study break being an engineering student i'm literally seeing equations as i walk down the street. 

Top
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 20:07
#6
Hjonard32's picture
Hjonard32
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 12/23/2014
Subject Is Under Construction Please Come By Again Later

I wish i was Smart as you When i read that I was like OHHH MY GOD *Head Explodes*

Top
Mon, 03/23/2015 - 20:14
#7
Garth's picture
Garth
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 03/04/2015
I'm not smart if i was i'd be

I'm not smart if i was i'd be aceing my engineering class and beating out the rest of the asians (I also wouldn't be failing some of my classes!). I devote 18 hours of my day to studying math and science it's not about being smart it's about studying hard. I also spent most of my childhood doing nothing but reading textbooks, doing experiments, learning math and watching mythbusters. So you give some you lose some. 

Top
Mon, 05/18/2015 - 22:46
#8
httyyd's picture
httyyd
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 10/12/2013
My head did not explode, just nodded.

Nice job, Garth.

 

The same way you see equations in real life, I see things to draw.

But I too see equations, though probably not as complex as the ones you think of.

 

I usually get the Terrible Terrors Booster.

__________________

Rest in Peace NarixuZen.  2004-2017

Member/Group Leader of S.O.D.A.H.T

 

Click SoD Hack Watch or SoDAHT to report a hacking:

Also use this form to help better keep track of the hackers:  (click here for form)

 

Book 10 - The Shattered Axe

Chapter 7 - Had to Axe

 

The Jarl Mollerson Mystery Series

All Chapter Links
 

 

Destiny in the Dark

Chapter 3 - Friends and Enemies

 

Proud Leader and fellow member of:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are links to the chapters of my fan-fic series.  The books go in chronological order.

 

The Clue of the Missing Socks.

Chapters 1 and 2                         Chapter 3                                       Chapter 4

Chapter 5                                      Chapter 6                                        Chapter 7

Chapters 8 and 9                        Chapter 10                                     Chapter 11

Chapters 12 and 13                     Chapters 14, 15, and 16             Chapter 17

Chapter 18                                    Chapter 19                                      Chapter 20

Chapter 21 and 22                      Chapter 23                                     Chapter 24 and 25

Chapter 26 - There is a hidden surprise.  Can you find it?

Chapter 27                                   Chapter 28, Part 1                         Chapter 28, Part 2

Chapter 29                                   Chapter 30                                       Chapter 31

Chapter 32                                   Chapter 33                                       Chapter 34

Chapter 35                                   Chapter 36                                       Chapter 37

Chapter 38                                   Chapter 39                                       Chapter 40

Chapter 41                                   Chapter 42                                       Chapter 43

Chapter 44                                   Chapter 45, Parts 1 and 2

 

The Mysterious Frozen Fire

Chapter 1         Chapter 2         Chapter 3         Chapter 4         Chapter 5         Chapter 6

Chapter 7         Chapter 8         Chapter 9         Chapter 10       Chapter 11       Chapter 12

Chapter 13       Chapter 14       Chapter 15        Chapter 16       Chapter 17       Chapter 18  

Chapter 19       Chapter 20      Chapter 21        Chapter 22, Part 1       Chapter 22, Part 2 

Chapter 22, Part 3

Epilogue/Preview for my Third Story!

 

Thoughts of Guilt

Chapters 1 and 2          Chapters 3 and 4          Chapter 5          Chapter 6          Chapter 7

Chapter 8          Chapter 9          Chapter 10          Chapter 11          Chapter 12, Part 1

Chapter 12, Part 2          Chapter 13         Chapter 14         Chapter 15         Chapter 16

Chapter 17 and 18         Chapter 19         Chapter 20         Chapter 21         Chapter 22

Chapter 23         Chapter 24         Chapter 25         Chapter 26         Chapter 27

Chapter 28         Chapter 29         Chapter 30         Chapter 31         Chapter 32

Chapter 33         Chapter 34         Chapter 35         Chapter 36 and 37

Chapter 38, Part 1         Chapter 39, Part 2         Chapter 40, Part 3         Chapter 41

Chapter 42, Parts 1 and 2         Chapter 43         Chapter 44

Chapter 45, Part 1         Chapter 45, Part 2

 

On the Edge of Mystery

Chapter 1          Chapter 2         Chapter 3        Chapters 4 & 5    Chapter 6, Parts 1 and 2   

Chapter 7          Chapter 8         Chapter 9            Chapter 10       Chapter 11        Chapter 12

Chapter 13        Chapter 14       Chapter 15          Chapter 16        Chapter 17       Chapter 18

Chapter 19        Chapter 20       Chapter 21          Chapter 22       Chapter 23      Chapter 24

Chapter 25        Chapter 26       Chapter 27         Chapter 28        Chapter 29 Parts 1 and 2 

Chapter 30       Chapter 31       Chapter 32 and 33                         Chapter 34 Parts 1 and 2 

Chapter 35 Part 1         Chapter 35 Part 2        Chapter 35 Part 3        Chapter 36

 

The Secret Symbol

Chapter 1    Chapter 2    Chapter 3    Chapter 4    Chapter 5

Chapter 6    Chapter 7     Chapter 8    Chapter 9    Chapter 10

Chapter 11    Chapter 12    Chapter 13    Chapter 14    Chapter 15

Chapter 16    Chapter 17    Chapter 18    Chapter 19    Chapter 20

Chapter 21   Chapter 22   Chapter 23   Chapter 24 and 25

Chapter 26    Chapter 27    Chapter 28    Chapter 29 and 30

Chapter 31    Chapter 32    Chapter 33    Chapter 34    Chapter 35

Chapter 36    Chapter 37    Chapter 38    Chapter 39

Chapter 40 and 41    Chapter 42    Chapter 43, 44, 45, and 46

 

The Legend of Shadow Mountain

Chapter 1    Chapter 2    Chapter 3    Chapter 4    Chapter 5

Chapter 6    Chapter 7    Chapter 8    Chapter 9    Chapter 10

Chapter 11    Chapter 12    Chapter 13    Chapter 14    Chapter 15

Chapter 16   Chapter 17    Chapter 18    Chapter 19    Chapter 20

Chapter 21    Chapter 22    Chapter 23    Chapter 24    Chapter 25

Chapter 26    Chapter 27    Chapter 28    Chapter 29    Chapter 30

Chapter 31    Chapter 32    Chapter 33    Chapter 34    Chapter 35

Chapter 36    Chapter 37    Chapter 38    Chapter 39    Chapter 40

Chapter 41    Chapter 42    Chapter 43    Chapter 44    Chapter 45 & 46

Chapter 47    Chapter 48    Chapter 49    Chapter 50    Chapter 51

 

Teaser "Trailer" for Book 8 - Conquest of the Truth

 

The Crimson Storm

Chapters 1 and 2     Chapter 3    Chapter 4    Chapter 5    Chapter 6

Chapter 7    Chapter 8    Chapter 9    Chapters 10 and 11    Chapter 12

Chapter 13    Chapter 14    Chapter 15    Chapter 16    Chapter 17    Chapter 18

Chapter 19    Chapter 20    Chapter 21    Chapter 22    Chapter 23

Chapter 24    Chapter 25 and 26    Chapter 27    Chapter 28    Chapter 29

Chapter 30    Chapter 31    Chapter 32    Chapter 33    Chapter 34

Chapter 35 and Epilogue

Top
Mon, 05/25/2015 - 09:53
#9
AnimState's picture
AnimState
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 12/24/2014
Okay, so. I have got 66

Okay, so. I have got 66 mystery powerup boxes and want to contribute data to this study. Just one thing I wanted to check: did you go through all the boxes in one go or was the data collected over a period of time?

Top
Mon, 05/25/2015 - 11:46
#10
Garth's picture
Garth
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 03/04/2015
All at the same time

All at the same time

Top
Tue, 06/16/2015 - 22:21
#11
AnimState's picture
AnimState
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 12/24/2014
Here are my results from the
Here are my results from the middle-top ticket. Also 66 mystery boxes
 
Speed Boost: 12
Energy Boost:12
Smart Bomb: 10
Yaknog: 12
Terrible Terrors Booster: 12
Deadly Nadder Spikes Booster: 8
 
Not going to do the statistics. But it seems fairly evenly spread between Speed, Energy, Terrors and Yaknog as the boosters you're most likely to receive.
Top
Tue, 06/16/2015 - 22:21
#12
AnimState's picture
AnimState
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 12/24/2014
Here are my results from the
Here are my results from the middle-top ticket. Also 66 mystery boxes
 
Speed Boost: 12
Energy Boost:12
Smart Bomb: 10
Yaknog: 12
Terrible Terrors Booster: 12
Deadly Nadder Spikes Booster: 8
 
Not going to do the statistics. But it seems fairly evenly spread between Speed, Energy, Terrors and Yaknog as the boosters you're most likely to receive.
Top
Tue, 03/01/2016 - 13:40
#13
Garth's picture
Garth
Offline
Supreme Viking Champion
Joined: 03/04/2015
I'm reviving this because I

I'm reviving this because I finally have 200 mystery boxes

Top